The best time to sell a stock is when the opportunity cost of holding it higher than the expected return of holding it.
The title of this post is a quote from a famous bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach. Gundlach is the manager of DoubleLine Capital, a huge bond fund, which has earned him the nickname the Bond King.
It is clear to me that information that is obvious, should be priced into the market price of a public asset. This is logical. But if you abide by this logic, you should also agree with the statement that everything that is not obvious, is not priced in.
By this logic, you would also have to assume that, unless every possible event is inherently obvious to market participants, the price of a public security is inevitably always wrong, since it does not account for the obvious.
In the same vein, being a contrarian is a valuable stance, but only if there is an non-obvious truth that the market isn’t accounting for. Successful contrarians, try to approach the world from a different perspective. But they only act on it when they feel they have discovered an under appreciated possibility.
The key is that thinking contrarian is a process, being contrarian is an action. You don’t always think contrarian, but only sometimes be contrarian.
Two economists are walking down a street, discussing the Efficient Market Hypothesis, when one of them suddenly stops in his tracks. He points to the street and says “look, there’s a $10 bill!”
The other economist looks at him with a mixture of amazement and disgust as he replies in a reprimanding tone: “Obviously, if there was a $10 bill there, someone would have already picked it up.”
What this joke illustrates is the inherent paradox of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. For markets to be efficient, they are active participants. For participants to be active in a market, there needs to be an arbitrage. In a perfectly efficient market, the arbitrage is competent away by the activity of the participants.
The Markets are Mostly Efficient
No market is perfectly efficient. New information is constantly entering the collective perception of the market. Once information becomes obvious, it will obviously be priced in, when markets are efficient.
WIth the internet and other technological advancement in data gathering, analytics and distribution, markets have undoubtedly become more efficient. In the early value investing days of Warren Buffett, he would read through Standard and Poor’s manuals, making mental calculations of stock’s intrinsic valuation. Nowadays, this information is readily available and calculated, practically in real time.
In a podcast interview on the Invest with the Best Podcast, Michael Mauboussin, presented a fascinating statistic:
“I think that one of my other favorite statistics in the paper is that in 1976, there were less than 1 CFA charter holder, for every public company in the United States, and today there are 27 CFA charter holders for every public company in the United States. So a lot more eyeballs on the companies that are out there. And maybe there is clearly more dispersion in smaller midcap companies. But look, the world is just a super dynamic place. You see these value changes are quite dramatic. You think about 2020 and hardly anybody had any idea what was going to go on. It was really hard.”
Degrees of Market Efficiency
It goes without saying that there are different degrees of efficiency. When you invest in big S&P 500 stocks such as Apple, Amazon or Netflix, you should be aware that there are hundreds of analysts that cover those stocks. You have to ask yourself what kind of an edge you have over those market participants.
At the same time, there are plenty of markets and asset classes that are less efficient. There are many publicly traded stocks that don’t have a single analyst covering them. Outside of the stock markets there are all sorts of asset classes and markets where an individual can develop expertise and investment edge. Internet domains, for example, is an asset class that has a very vibrant secondary market and dedicated investors.
There are plenty of $10 bills out there, waiting to be picked up.
“Apple is worth $2,000,000,000,000. That is a lot of money” said Anthony Pompliano on Twitter the other day. Dave Collum promptly corrected him: “priced at.” This is a very important and warranted distinction. We talk about the market capitalizations of companies all the time, but less often we think about what it actually implies.
For Every Buyer there is a Seller
The current price of a publicly traded stock is the most recent point where the most willing seller and most eager buyer matched. So when Apple stocks ended a trading day at $498, the last buyer and seller that were matched were willing to do business for that price. For someone to buy, someone also has to sell.
But the market price only gives us some information about the marginal sellers and buyers. One an average day, somewhere between 100 to 200 million shares of Apple stock will change hands. That’s a lot of shares. On particularly busy days, this will exceed 300 million. On a slow day, however, as little as 50 million shares will change hands. But Apple has 4.35 billion shares outstanding. So, even on the most hectic days, less than 7% of the outstanding shares will change hands.
The 7% figures is likely deceptive as high frequency trading and other forms of day trading and market making might overstate the fact that the majority of stockholders will not sell on a given day.
Therefore, the market cap and stock price of a company will tell you where it is priced at by the market. it won’t tell you where the stock is valued at by the market.
Netflix has grown to become a $180 billion dollar Market Cap company. If you add their net debt, that adds up to a total capitalization – aka Enterprise Value – of $192 Billion. Not bad for a company founded in 1997. Not bad at all.
Price Per Potential Subscriber
If you divide the $192 billion Enterprise Value by the 236 million people that populate the United States of America, you arrive at a value of about $815 per each compatriot of Wilmont Reed Hastings Jr. This is where you might point out that Netflix is a global brand with a global audience. Well, that computation, my friend, would allocate $25 worth of Netflix per human inhabitant of the earth.
NFLX EV/EBITDA Multiple
In the last twelve months, Netflix’s Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization was $2 billion. That means that Netflix is trading at a multiple of 96 times its trailing EBITDA. Disney, by comparison, is trading at a multiple of 11.
So, imagine this scenario: For the next 10 years, Netflix grows its EBITDA by an annual rate of 24.19%. At the end of the tenth year, Netflix’s EBITDA will have reached $17.5 billion. That’s a very healthy growth. But for this to happen, paid subscriptions would have to be close to 1 billion.
Needless to say, a Netflix with 1 billion subscribers does not have the same growth potential as a Netflix with 130 million paid subscribers. What if Netflix was now trading at the same multiple as Disney is trading at today? That would mean that after ten years the enterprise value of Netflix would be $192 billion.
Price is what you pay for. Value is what you get.