Should I Invest in Gold?

All investments have to be made by taking into account the objectives of the portfolio, the allocation of assets, and the need for the new investment into the overall investment strategy. Hence, before investing in gold it is best to carry out a basic review of the portfolio goals and then make a choice.

The start of 2016 featured dull economic growth and feeble energy prices which caused the share market to open at its worst. This resulted in an increased demand for gold and its price soared. However, as the year progressed, the share market outperformed gold and by the year ending it was 3 percentage points above the yellow metal.

You may go through the below-listed pros and cons of gold before investing in it.

Advantages of investing in Gold

  • It is a great hedge against inflation and currency: Gold and other precious metals are a good source of hedging any risks such as a possible decline in the US Dollar or other major currencies. Price of gold tends to rise with the weakening of a currency. It is argued that high inflation is marked by increased prices of gold, which safeguard purchasing power. However, there are many who debate this argument. Additional information about the relationship between inflation and gold prices is provided below in the article.
  • Portfolio diversification: One of the major aspects of a good portfolio is diversification wherein there is no correlation between different classes of assets in the investments. This means that the different asset classes fluctuate in their own unique way thereby offering some protection during times of volatility. Over the past 5 years, the price of gold has differed from the different share indices and the movement of each is independent of one another. Thus, gold and other precious metals are a great way to diversify the portfolio.
  • Hedge against economic collapse: Gold and other precious metals can be a great source of barter when the world economy is in turmoil. Over the course of history, it has been observed that people purchase gold as a hedge against uncertain times. When the world appears to be in a state of disarray, investors like to buy and own gold. For example, in 2008, during one of the worst global financial crises in recent times, there was an appreciation of gold by 5 per cent while stocks tanked by nearly 40 per cent. Gold gained over 7 points against stocks in 2011 when it seemed that the United States may default and the credit rating of the country dropped.

Disadvantages of investing in Gold

  • The returns in the long-term are low: As compared to shares, the returns offered by gold have historically been low. It thus makes a bad investment selection for the long term.
  • No revenue in form of dividends: Investment in gold does not offer interest, dividends, or any other type of income. Hence, one of the most renowned investors in the world, Warren Buffet, is against investment in gold or other precious metals. Currently, the interest rate is low, and hence in such a scenario lack of income will play a smaller role as the opportunity cost with regards to investment in gold will be lower.
  • The worth of gold is determined by what a buyer is willing to pay for it: Gold does not have an intrinsic value. Thus, it’s worth can drop if people decrease their investments in gold. Also, it would not be of great value in a barter market as people may consider something like toilet paper or other true consumables to be worth more than gold which does not really take care of any human needs on its own.

The relationship between gold and inflation

It is said that gold does not offer any yield. The definition, however, states that increased interest rates will offer some yield to gold investors. On the other hand, if the FED detects inflation and increases the interest rates, then people will sell gold and purchase Treasury notes for better returns. This will cause the price of gold to drop.

President Trump has stated that he will begin a public works program amount to $1 trillion. Such fiscal stimulus may cause the inflation to rise sharply and making the FED increase the interest rates. This may eventually result in a drop in gold prices.

The above example has to be read in context with what happens in reality and not in theory. It is important to note that the FED does not increase interest rates haphazardly. It wants the inflation to be under control, but its main aim is to keep negative real rates wherein inflation is higher as compared to nominal rates. Raising the interest rate will not offer any positive effect unless there is a faster rise in inflation. This is the scenario where its job of wealth preservation is done by gold.

In the late 1970s, the United States was on the brink of hyperinflation, the gold price was about $130, and Treasury notes dived under 7 per cent. By 1980, gold reached its peak price of over $800, while the ten-year Treasury returns were over 10 per cent. To avoid a worldwide run on the dollar, the FED chief took anti-inflation steps in October 1979. The price of gold kept rising till it reached its peak, but the stranglehold kept on by the FED eventually yielded results and gold prices started to dive.

The current Fed chief, Janet Yellen, may not strangle inflation as in the above example. In the late 70s, the FED had hiked up the interest rates above the inflation rate. However, in 2018, the FED is most likely to increase interest rates but keep it under the rate of inflation.

Different financial issues across the world like persistent unemployment, the European debt crisis, and a hangover of the housing crisis, etc., have created an environment that is fraught with a probable collapse of the global economy. Hence, hedging in gold will offer stability and protect your ability to continue trading for varied goods and services.

 

Published by

Gísli Eyland

There are just too many interesting things going on

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